"Recently I raised the question of how a warming climate may be affecting the hawk flight at Soddy Mountain, Tennessee, so I have decided to look at a previous year of late-season hawk records. I have data going back a number of years, and I literally at random, I chose my 1996 record book to do a comparison between that year and 2017. I realize every year is different, but the past 2-3 years the post-BW hawk flights have been quite disappointing. The contrasts are eye-opening!
I didn’t pay much attention to hours of coverage. Granted this year was much less than 1996. There are 3 reasons for that: 1). I have a much busier schedule now than I did then. 2). I had other counters that helped me in 1996, and there were enough hawks migrating to keep them on the lookout. In contrast, I didn’t see but one fellow hawkwatcher on one day from Oct.-Dec. this year. 3). There were numerous days when I could have stayed on the lookout much longer, but when you’ve been up there for 2-3 hours and not seen a thing, it is hard to justify spending more time gathering negative data.
The following stats are a comparison of October 1996 and October 2017. Since Sharp-shinned Hawks and Red-tailed Hawks are the primary migrants in Oct. I focused only on those two species. I did not count any vultures for this comparison. I will also note the starting temperature F for each day, so pay close attention to that. The dates don’t always match up, but you’ll get the picture.
10/4/96, start temp. 72 F: SS 2, RT 1 10/1/17, start temp. 69 F: 0
10/5/96, start temp. 60 F: SS 25, RT 6 10/6/17, start temp. 74 F: 0
10/6/96, start temp. 43 F: SS 24 10/9/17: start temp. 85 F: SS 2
10/12/96, start temp. 40 F: SS 22, RT 5 10/10/17, start temp. 85 F: SS 1
10/13/96, start temp 45 F: SS 45, RT 1, (GE 1) 10/12/17, start temp 65 F: SS 9, RT 1
10/18/96: start temp. 55 F: SS 13, RT 2 10/13/17, start temp. 58 F: SS 11
10/19/96: start temp. 35 F: SS 19, RT 1 10/14/17, start temp. 72 F: SS 8
10/20/96, start temp. 34 F: SS 46, RT 10 10/15/17, start temp. 72 F: SS 59
10/28/96, start temp. 70: SS 25, RT 1 10/16/17, start temp. 60 F: SS 4
10/29/17, start temp. 75: SS 10, RT 2, (NH 10) 10/21/17, start temp. 54 F: 0
10/30/96, start temp. 77: SS 13, RT 3 10/22/17, start temp. 73 F: 0
10/24/17, start temp. 62 F: 0
Total: 244 SS, RT 32 10/26/17, start temp. 50 F: SS 3, RT 1
10/31/17, start temp. 59 F: SS 4, RT 2
Total: 100 SS, RT 4
November and December 1996 vs. 2017 is even more revealing, and it’ll come soon.
Reporting: Bill Haley"
Are there nests showing early activity this year? Report them. We would love to know, without disclosing locations. The warmth definitely had butterflies migrating later in greater numbers than I ever remember, and I know there were later nests of many songbirds around my yard. So did the Migratrs which usually make a shift from North to South just not move, or not move as far south this year? How will food sources affect them if the snows are often or deep? There are lots of questions that can be asked about how the warm weather, and lack of major fronts affect the movement of The Big Buteos, Vultures etc. We could compare the numbers in Louisiana, Texas and Florida with former years to see if fewer arrived there as well. Lots of ways to look at the stats and learn or ask questions about Hawk migration. It's how we grow in what we know - to ask the questions and make the comparisons. I know when I looked at Vulture movement in California, they had the earliest and yet largest movement ever. We didn't even see that. Did fires push theirs south in spite of the weather? It would require some investigation. Any takers, college students? It's worth knowing the truth.
I could shorten our mantra to "Keep Looking" instead of
KEEP LOOKING UP!!!
LOL
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