2019 Fall Season Review

It's time to put the 2019 season into perspective before I close it til next fall.  And the simplest comparison is to last year.  The season total last year was 4524.  A nice total, a mid range year, with reasonably great results.  But if you take out the Broad-winged Hawks, the season total is a meager 881.  Broadies have always dominated the numbers.  That's no secret to us. So at any time if you take out the BW numbers you get a number that makes the over all comparison for raptors passing our watch more realistic. So this year can be broken down like this: 901 raptors minus the 197 BWs, means the record for other raptors = 704.   The gap doesn't seem so large, especially given only one person able to man the team almost the whole season. I won't get into hours comparison just yet. I will make comparisons to other years in a bit.

Secondly, there are other years with somewhat low numbers,  for similar reasons, mainly how many people or hours could be committed to the effort. 2007 and 2008 were prime examples of the numbers reflecting that effort.  2007 has a total record of 712 raptors of which were 654 BWs.  Only 58 other species were recorded.  I am not looking at that years specifics, but I'll bet that's a year when only guys who had a few hours during BW season, reported what they saw to one another.  I don't think Jimmy had retired by then, but I know it was a time when he was at least hoping to spend a lot of retirement time on the watch during BW season.  In 2008  the numbers were 913 total, 858 BWs for a balance of 55 other raptors logged.  Making both years very similar in number for other species.  And also the lowest of all our years for those numbers reported.  This does not however identify specific species lows.  Which would be another avenue for comparison.

But it distinguishes the 2019 season to be a flip flop from all previous years in percentage of Hawks seen being more of other species than of Broadwings.  In fact it sets a new precedent for Vultures holding the bulk on the count total percentage!  That's a first, and a curious record.  So how do Vultures measure up by count to other years? Well, it's not new for there to be more vultures counted than BWs.  1994 and 1999 in the early dates were years where the Vulture numbers exceeded the BWs.  The next several years had very low numbers for vultures, indicating that the count hours didn't go into the months when the Vultures were on the move. No other years had higher Vulture Counts than BWs.  But some had large vulture counts and large BW counts. 550 total combined vultures represent 61% of the 2019 count.

So what other species represented this year? Did any exceed a yearly total from all the other years?  A quick glance very quickly says no.  So were there years when the numbers did at least compare for other species. Let's see -

(I am going in order of the birds as they were seen and recorded first, not the chart order.  It just makes referencing the numbers a little simpler for me. To see actual numbers for yourself, reference the charts on the STATS FROM THE PAST page link.  At this point I haven't added the 2019 chart to the stats page-)

Bald Eagle - 6 years recorded fewer than the 13 BEs Bill reported this year. A few others the numbers were really close to that figure.  Although less than in some recent years, it still rates as reasonable.

Northern Harrier-  at least 12 years, there were fewer NH than this years count of 11.  Several more years, including recent years, only yeilded a few more.  Northern Harriers were a good representation of the Harriers crossing the Soddy MTn pathe.

Sharp-shinned Hawk - this year total exceeded the counts of at least 6 other years, and tied with one year.  But it is 1/3 to 1/2 of that of recent years.  Part of that can easily be accounted for, however, by the number of eyes to the skies.  Sharpies sometimes scoot low along the valley treetops, or shoot by in singles like little bullets and are hard to pick up unliess someone just happens to be looking their way.  With multiple watchers,  one or two people can scan an area more frequently for single birds like that.  Plus they are small.  One can get by easily when you are watching the western sky.  Many counted can be the ones coming directly over the ridge where our scans most frequently originate.  Plus they can fly low, sometimes along the airspace lower than the hawkwatch, and we mostly are LOOKING UP. LOL

Osprey - 1993 was the only year fewer than 3 Osprey were recorded. And this years number seems a little odd since so many Osprey nests are showing up everywhere in our area. Perhaps they left earlier?

Cooper's Hawk = for 13 years the Cooper's Hawk numbers were less than or about the same within 3 or 4 hawks of the same number as this year, 20.  They remain stable.

American Kestrals - 3. From 2007 through 14, Kestrel numbers were similarly low.  A couple other years they were around 10, 9, 12...Also on middle ground.  Some of our big number years also reflected big kestrel numbers.  Again, more eyes to the skies, or weather that brought them into clear view?

Merlin - Only 7 years were more Merlins seen, and a couple of those were like 5 or so.  A few of those seven were 0 to 3 birds seen.  Happy with 4.

Golden Eagle - even 1 Golden Eagle is par and a plus,  most years read 1 or 0 seen.

 Red-tailed Hawks -  I think I counted 11 years with fewer RTs counted than this year, and one year which tied.   That puts the RT count dead in the the middle of where it should be.  Again, those numbers do rely on how late in the season the count continues. 

Red-shouldered Hawks - In all the years since 3005 the numbers of RS hawks has been way down from the early years. In only 3 years did the numbers exceed this year, by 3 or 4 hawks.  9 was actually a very good number.  4th highest count in a lot of years.


So there's the break down. The numbers were realistic except for the BW count. Yes there were years more of some species were seen by a lot, but as comparisons to other years, they were acceptable.  So it remains that the BW's were the oddball . The why of it would appear to be the heat.  My personal best guess, and I think Jimmy thinks it might be true too. I haven't asked Bill.  But it seems that if there were numbers of birds on the Soddy Mtn Lookout pathway this September, they were already way too high to see, because the heat allowed for early lift, and late returns to low air space.  They just weren't within view.  Having fewer eyes to the skies also play into what can be seen, because those skies can hide a kettle of several hundred if you just aren't looking in their direction.  And you just can't look ahead of you and over your shoulder at the same time. 

I think I mentioned that the big numbers were counted at higher elevations in NC, which would seem to add to this suspicion.  It's a reasonable answer to the query.  And the hours spent searching for them, is definitely a first for so little return. 

But there it is. The numbers are on the record. and I will try to get the chart up on the stats page . before too long.  Will be busy this Spring and Summer.  Our Grandson will be married, and it's mine and Jimmy's 50th Anniversary in July.  Plus I owe my Ancestry partner at least a little time on that blog.  I've been trying to tell the story of my ancestor who was wounded at Chickamauga for several years now.   I missed spending time on the watch.  And have no idea if we can get up there much again. But we are hoping to.

Jimmy's CK numbers in his blood work are back to normal for the first time in 2 years! Super news.  He feels better lately.  Good enough to go birding a time or two.  I am walking most of the time without my cane. All in all we are proud to be still kicking LOL.  So we will look forward at this point to next year.  Unless Bill has any closing statements going forward, this is it till August 2020, unless we have some spring surprise posts. 

In life and when in nature, please don't forget to

KEEP LOOKING UP!!!