End of the Year Stats Breakdown

I promised to find some things we could say about 24 years of hawk-watching by analyzing the data, and I found some answers to things I was curious about.  I gave several ways the data was set up, and what info was expected by record keepers.  Let me rename them:

#1.       By kind of bird
#2.       By total number of raptors/yr
#3.       By number of days
#4.       By number of hours
#5.       By BW vs other  Raptors /ie. by the actual migration time of each raptor
#6.       By weather and other local conditions for  each day
#7.       By ratios of these things and how they compare to other years strictly as numbers.
#8.       By unique individuals seen – or numbers on the increase/decrease

We have kept the kinds of raptors seen from our watch now, for 24 years. Therefore, next year we will have a quarter century of ongoing data.  And it has been the unique benefit of our generation to be able to make the data public because of the internet and social media, and websites.  And I mean "we" as a whole community of hawk-watchers. 

 Most web-sites however post pure data.  A few have Facebook pages which, like ours, post or link to daily data as it is counted. Some are able to post pictures of great finds of individual birds, or discuss the ways to ID a unique bird.  We have tried to do some ID blogs here.  Although, many have come bringing great lenses, our site doesn't lend itself to super pictures of hawks, because many raptors are able to attain great heights above our site, quickly in the day.

But the data, which the guys collect, isn't put up from their notebooks each day. Not as it's collected. One of the things I would like to do next year, is give a full year's reports, showing a picture of the data page, exactly the way the guys collect it.  I wish I had done it sooner, thereby making that detailed data viewable by anyone. There are interesting bits of info that can be gleaned from those pages. 

 But for the most part the data is presented publicly in a very simple form. An end of the year Chart.  With columns for the Initials of individual species showing first and foremost, the kinds of raptors seen.  (#1)
Listed across the top of the chart, for our watch, it looks like this:

The charts, as I have said in previous posts, are located on the STATS FROM THE PAST page of this blog. Last Blog, I discussed that the charts evolved to be yearly lines only due to the changing of my available software, time constraints, and the need to post info significant to that year alone.  I also repeat here that the "standard" lineup of birds is as they appear on the chart.  For simplicity, and for anyone who has not learned the meaning of the Initials: They represent the birds in the following order:
Osprey, Mississippi Kite, Bald Eagle, Golden Eagle, Northern Harrier, Sharp-Shinned Hawk, Cooper's Hawk, Northern Goshawk, Red-Shouldered Hawk, Broad-winged Hawk, Red-Tailed Hawk, Rough-legged Hawk, American Kestrel, Merlin, Peregrine Falcon, Turkey Vulture, Black Vulture, and the unidentified raptors.

So thus we have kept the records, by kinds of birds, as totals for the season into each column year by year.

This chart also has a column for the Total number of Raptors seen each season.  (#2) And that is what I want to use to shed some light on just what those totals show. I have arranged those totals from the highest to the lowest number of raptors seen into a chart, and added a column for one species to show how we could discuss the date in a number of ways.  Since many of our largest numbers revolve around Broad-wings,  and we have gathered the most data during BW season, it is the most reasonable raptor to use for this example. 

I will say now and remind you later, that Broad-wing season is the only migration that was consistently covered throughout the years for our site.  There are lots of reasons, mainly due to manpower restraints. However, an interesting thing occurred down through the years.  Which the data upholds. Exactly 1/2 of the years the BW figures dominate, and 1/2 of the years the data is variable, due at least in part to the inclusion of hawks seen during October through December, because of a dedicated attempt to include at least some data during those months.  Bill did his best to make 2016 one of those years.

Here's the chart:

The grand total of all those hawks is: 83,537.  It was very satisfying when I reran the figures in a new order, that I came up with the exact same figure as my ongoing count figure. But I was curious what would the average number of birds/year be. From an analytical standpoint, we can determine percent comparisons, specifically BW's versus other raptors (#5), for our site.
 Remember- we are using count data, not attempting to make that data represent all of actual numbers of hawks that may have passed our site, which we couldn't count. Percentages are dependent on our numbers.
83,357 divided by the 24 years is a 3,480 bird average.

Likewise,  BW grand totals are 61,816 birds, which again matched my ongoing totals, thankfully.  That number divided by 24 years gives an average of 2,576 BW's/year.  Shown as a percent of BW's to the whole number of raptors, it is 74% BW's.

It is not surprising considering that at least on half of our years concentrated on BW flights.



When I took the individual percents by year, I was able to add that to the chart as follows: (#6)

 

Exactly 1/2 of the years produced percents of BW's at over 75%  of all species seen.  Two years were the lowest percentage at 31 - 1994 and 1999.  Less than 1/3 of the birds those two years were BW's! These two years were probably due to not enough persons able to get full coverage of any one season. But it is data.  And as Jimmy says, to be sure, you still have to look at hours and days, one of the many reasons for the data being kept on those items. (#4 and #5)  I won't look back at this time, so I can keep my train of thought concerning percentages.

If I add the percentages for these 12 years, under 75%, I have a high of 72% and a low of 31% twice. A variety of figures, from which we get a total of 650% for 12 years; dividing by 12 an average percent of 54%.  In other words, even in the years of wider coverage, a little over half the birds counted were BW's.
Some might think I should eliminate our greatest year for BW's, since we believe it to be an oddball year. But the stat's won't change because, there are 4 other years with even higher BW percent. 

For ease of analyzing: the years over 75% are - 2015, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2006, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2005, 2011,2008, and 2007.  Even the missing years of 2003 and 2004 come in at 65.7% and 67.9% respectively, for BW's.  That affirms the premise which we know exists, that the years we concentrated on BW season are also the years when 75+% of all hawks seen, were BW's.  But I believe that even with good numbers of Red-tails and Black Vultures being counted, a number under 75% would probably still hold true.  In our area, I simply don't remember seeing numbers of TV's that exceeded 800 birds, when I saw the huge numbers elsewhere. It would take a lot of those figures on a regular basis to overwhelm the totals of BW's seen. 

So did we see more Broad-wings than other birds combined? Yes, by 50% more.   Half as many again BW's to all other Hawks combined.  In fact, the middle of the day high birds that we couldn't count, and only assumed were there, would have raised those figures much higher. If we had been at a higher elevation, we might have raised those numbers even more.  But, we aren't analyzing what ifs.  Only, the actual counts.

Still, we cannot make an absolute statement regarding all of migration, in real time. The playing field for our count schedules is uneven. Even on many years which the entire season was covered, they didn't have as many dedicated hours or watchers - 10am to 5pm from October through mid December - with as many eyes as we have in September.  Winds, weather, work schedules, etc. just dug into the time. But, even if we had, the big numbers of RT's and TV's would have difficulty rivaling big days for BW's. I would certainly drop several highs and lows to make better comparisons.

If by going back into the logs and I cherry pick some years that hours are similar across the entire migration time, I might get a whole new perspective on what the figures might have been.  But those are 'might have beens," not actuals. Yet possibly worth the effort some time.  Especially, if next year we get broader coverage with more people than just Bill, so we can also say," more eyes to the skies were figured into the data."

No where in the charts are the numbers of watchers recorded.  I personally wish I was anal enough to actually go back and figure them in. I genuinely believe the count numbers increase when numbers of watchers also increase.

We've discussed the total number of hawks compared to BW's. But I won't submit you to those figures for each species.  But I can discuss the remaining species in other ways and I have developed a chart for doing that.  In my notes, I made myself a reminder to make a new chart that shows hawks per hour. And I might do that as my final post about 2016's stats.

 But for now, this chart gives the totals of all other raptors, their best year, and if the numbers indicate an increase or decrease. 
This observation, is only as it relates to the numbers we have.  It is a shame, as Bill relents often, that we do not have better late season data. We can't actually say the numbers for birds that migrate later that BW's are on the decrease.  We can only say that our figures for these birds are a decrease from the earlier years that were well covered across the season.  But it does confirm something. These birds definitely migrate later than BW's for the most part! All data tells us something.

I can't help but be surprised at some of these totals.  I didn't double ck them all. So let's say for the sake of an error, we can still draw some conclusions, including (#8) the increase or decrease of raptors in our counts.  I obviously could take the figures and compare them to the grand total of over 80,000 birds, but I think it's pretty obvious how small those percentages would be. The largest of these, the TV's, at almost 10,000 isn't quite 1/8 of the birds seen. All the others are decidedly smaller fractions.

In my notes, I wrote some of the things that I saw occurring with the numbers.  For instance, we saw more Golden Eagles during hacking years.  Makes sense.  But a couple of things I kept noticing while looking at the yearly charts, was there frequently were back to back years, which some totals were near or identical to one another.  I though it was very interesting that the numbers would be so close.  It made me wonder if we actually were seeing the same birds following the same route in those years.  Merlins in the last 3 years are a good example.  In 2014, I told the guys about 2 more Merlins I had seen, but they would not count them because I didn't have a backup person to ID.  And the one counted was pretty much because I was determined I knew what I was seeing and insisted they count it.  I felt a little bit affirmed when both last year and this year, we also saw 3 Merlins.  I have to wonder if they are the same birds.  Can't know for sure, but I wonder.

Something similar happens with Bald Eagles.  This year we had obvious locals in abundance, for the first time on our count. Yet we still counted 35, only 1 less than the year before.  But let's look at the Bald Eagle's stats specifically by year: 3, 3, 15, 18, 18, 41, 25, 23, 34, 35, 24, 27, 8, 20, 5, 6, 22, 6, 21, 25, 29, 36, 35.  Notice how many times the number for back to back years are almost the same.  Now let's remove the low numbers so we can see what most year represent:
15, 18, 18, 41, 25, 23, 34, 35, 24, 27, 20, 22, 21, 25, 29, 36, 35.  Those numbers are closer than with any other species.  I find that this is too close to ignore.  We must be seeing some of the same birds. And some of those are pairs with their offspring when we see them. Families of Eagles learning the route together.  When we frequently see the same birds returning to same areas to nest, it is not farfetched to assume we are seeing at least some of the same BE's year after year. Maybe the young don't survive at a great rate, and of course some older birds die off.  Or the numbers now would be significantly higher.  A good investigation on their numbers would be to compare them to the number of hours.  And see if our perception changes.

The last thing I gleaned from our Data at this point was that we now know what the top 5 birds are: BW, TV, RT, SS, and BV.  The top 10 adds: CH, BE, AK, NH, and RS.  I love that the numbers of Bald Eagles exceed the numbers of Kestrels.  But was surprised that the Numbers of Northern Harriers we've counted exceeds the numbers of Red-Shouldered Hawks.

There are some obvious misses, and lots more to be learned.  I am sure there are questions that can still be asked. There should be a chart to relate the weather as an actual document, not just our perception that the hawk numbers increase before and after cold Fronts.  Especially ones with lots of rain.  And of course I still think it's important to at least do a "days and hours" chart. 

But the one thing I haven't mentioned at all are the unique individuals that we have seen.(# 8)  In all these years we have only managed to count 3 Mississippi Kites, 1 Northern Goshawk, and 1 Rough-legged Hawk.  The rarest of our species. But there have only been 61 Merlins, and 18 Golden Eagles.  I didn't get to see the NG or the RL, and am not sure I could have ID'd them at the time.  But I feel so privileged to have seen the Kites, Eagles, and Merlins. I likely would have not seen them had we not put in the hours.  I have seen them at other times, in other places, but I am very proud to have been on the hawk watch when we counted some of these relatively rarer of the migrants.

Well, it's been a long blog, I know.  But hopefully the numbers are engrossing to some of you as well.  I, now, don't just know the numbers, I know what those number tell us.  Based on 8 basic criteria.  (with the present exception of the weather stats, which will take me a little work to arrive at conclusions.  I will need to spend some hours there.) 

 

 

 

I can end the season of 2016 knowing more than I did. I have some actual facts to share with the Tennessee knowledge of raptors migrating in fall through our state.  It is some of what data watchers in the 1930s to 50's wondered about.  It is an important documentation of what 24 years of migration has looked like, to the extent we were physically able to collect the data.  And now it has been analyzed for answers that have never been known before. Sadly, we don't have significant data to compare it to from years prior to the 90's. But there is some data there, in someone's records. And if it could be combined over any period of multiple years, we could do a great comparison with ease to know how the old migrations compare to today's. Is there that much data from one site, can we compare it legitimately to our data. Or can we just compare that data to itself and then see how it compares to our site?

Jimmy found some of those old numbers.  Who knows if one day it's our destiny to research them out and make that comparison ourselves.  If anyone out there, would like to and is able...we would love to post it here.

So until Spring at least, I have only a couple more posts about the 2016 season that I want to make, and we will close it out.

SAYING-
KEEP LOOKING UP!!!!



HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!!!!

By Numbers of Birds Seen

I will open this blog with the Stats Bar, showing the data listed by numbers of birds seen, just as we have recorded it from the beginning. 

I am not sure where the format for that info initiated, but, we see it on websites official and non official, used across the board.  Occasionally, there will be slight differences on other charts, based on the hawks they see compared to our own set of hawks seen.  But in general, our chart resembles those of hawk watches along the eastern flyway.
This bar shows our 2016 stats in the "official" order.*

Breaking down and comparing the stats over the years is my new focus for a few posts before closing out the seasons, as I discussed last blog.  I will begin with that chart, which we use every year to post our data.

 The original chart was made by Bill Haley and printed on the flyer we passed out, representing the initial years of the Hawk Watch. That chart now appears at the top of the page on:
STATS FROM THE PAST,  (link also located on the right side bar of the blog.)
The years were from 1993 to 2004.  That chart helps us see how you would like to see the data.  Easy to view, concise and in a specified order. 

To this day, Jimmy hates that I put up the running totals on the side bar without putting them up in the specified order - OS, MK, BE, GE, NH, SS, CH, NG, RS, BW, RT, RL, AK, ML, PG, TV, BV, UIs, Totals, Hours, Days.  The reason they are not in that accepted order, on the side bar, is that the side bar totals indicate the order in which we saw the birds, and first recorded them for the season. It is seldom the same from year to year, but it answers the questions in my mind, what was the first bird of the year?, how soon did we see Bald Eagles?, and were the Accipiters running early this year?.  So, I doggedly refuse to change it. There is literally no other way to get a quick answer to those kinds of questions.  One must go page by page through someone's record book otherwise. For a public record, it needs to be kept in that order, at least for the season.

On the original given day that several new species were seen, I may not have gone through the page to see by minute or hour which species were seen first. So they might be slightly out of order in that regard, but in general, they appear as we saw them progressively through-out the season. And that is due to how they are listed in someone's record book.  Or how the data was given to me.

But for the Charts, I like that there is a standard.

Over several more years after the first chart, no one had made a new chart, so when we began the blog, I wanted to start by catching up the data into a new chart.  At the time, I was just going to make it an ongoing thing to update that chart every year.  Well, computer and software changes made it extremely difficult to just update it, and I never really had the time to rewrite the charts from scratch. Plus I was afraid I would invert numbers or something when rewriting the charts over that much data. Plus, each year, we wanted to add some additional info on the page about the year, so it became a year by year data spread, modeled after the standard set - a single bar of data emerged, like the one above.*

When Jimmy and I retire from monitoring the watch, possibly next year, on our 25  year Anniversary, I hope I am able to make a new chart that will be that one chart that shows all the data at once from 2004 to 2017.  Who knows, maybe I'll get really ambitious and make a chart from the beginning that shows the whole 25 years.  I should start on it now. LOL

The bar can be explained as showing the following:
The year, #s of birds seen in the specified order by name, unidentified species, total raptors seen, hours spent on the watch and days spent there.

Obviously, blank boxes indicate 0 birds seen of that species.  Most of this is explained on the Stats From the Past Pg.  The abbreviations for the birds is also explained there.

These simple numbers are not the entire scope of the data we the guys have kept yearly, but condense the numbers specifically and provide the ground work for our first way to compare the data -

BY THE NUMBERS.

So, now on this page you have all the charts and bars, all the data by the numbers from 1993 through 2016.  Maybe, you would like to take a look and do a few comparisons.

.
One of the other things these charts don't show is the ongoing totals, and it occurred to Jimmy a few years ago to add them all up. That is when he discovered that we would cross the 50,000 mark on Broad-wings alone.  Since then we have tried to update the running Grand Totals, and I have just updated them to the 2016 figures on the left top side bar.  That update will remain until the end of next season.

Grand totals are: BW's - 61,816 and all Raptors - 83,537.

My next blog I will have a few new charts.  And we will address how this year compares to other years. 
 'Til next time, when you are doing all those bird counts, don't forget to -

KEEP LOOKING UP!

2016 Hawk Watch Season Is OVER

FALL 2016 Is A Wrap!

FINAL UPDATED TOTALS FOR 2016:

BW 1408 -(1 dark Morph)

BE 35

SS 110

NH 13

AK 21

PG 7  (Falcon Species -1)

OS 14

RS 13

ML 3

CH 13

RT 53 - (1 dark Western? 1 Krider's Red-Tail)

TV 413

BV 38

____________

TOTAL FALL RAPTORS:  2142 (FINAL)

13 Species

1408 BW, 734 other Raptors

46 days, 272.25 hours

____________

 September  event only:

Tot. Raptors 1529 (1408 BW , 121 other Raptors,) 21 days, 151.75 Hrs.

Post Event:  613 Raptors (Oct/Nov/Dec)

Grand Total of Raptors seen in all the Soddy watch years since 1993:  83,537

(I still have to update the sidebar with the yr end statement and put up the chart on the stats pg etc -
across the blog to bring them current.  It takes some time, forgive please)

In 1993, with exactly 100 hours of viewing time, 1352 Raptors were seen in 26 days.  That first set of data sets a series of parameters for how to analyze the data. 

1.       By kind of bird

2.       By total number of raptors/yr

3.       By number of days

4.       By number of hours

 

But, other kinds of info we keep set new suggestions for how to make comparisons:

5.       By BW vs other  Raptors /ie. by the actual migration time of each raptor

6.       By weather and other local conditions for  each day

 

-But being extremely analytical, I want to carry it a bit further -

7.       By ratios of these things and how they compare to other years strictly as numbers.

8.       By unique individuals seen – or numbers on the increase/decrease

As difficult as this year was, and it was the worst, maybe except for a few very cold windy days of our earlier years, it wasn’t all that bad statistically.  And I want to see exactly how it compared to other years. 

That’s why I like the sharing of the data in this format. Blogging. The charts simply don’t show what we have learned by the mere experience of being at the site for years.  Keeping a story line allows us to voice what we were wondering about, what the time spent would eventually show. I remember the conversations years ago when we pondered many questions, and now we can say confidently some things we learned to be consistently true.  Notice I didn’t say always true.

 It’s nature we are observing, and living things that we are trying to put definitions onto. A saying we heard early on from people like Ken Dubke, an early mentor, was: “Birds have wings and they can fly.”  Great distances, in fact.  So, NO, not always true, just consistently true.  And not only we discovered these answers, other watchers, at other locations, drew similar conclusions, in their experience as well.  In other words, some things we learned can be shared across the watches, up and down the flyway, when “teaching” our visitors about hawk watching.  And when we visit other watches, we seem to know the same things.  Because the Birds taught us.

 Although, if we expand our comparisons to include other sites, a whole new set of parameters for comparisons evolve.

1.       How does elevation of the viewing site effect what you are able to see?

2.       How does the place in the US from which you view hawks effect the activity levels of the migrating raptors?

3.       How do Mountain migrations compare to open flatlands migration?

Beyond this point, the analytics may just become unreasonable.  But all of the above have come up in questions our visitors have asked, and questions we pondered as counters.  Many times, our end of the day conversation, as we packed up and walked off the hill, was full of question marks, after a full day of expectations met or dashed by the day’s statistics.  Bill has expressed several times this year his disappointments, thinking that once the heat of the summer broke, fall raptor counts of hawks other than BW’s would be good.  It left us all shaking our heads.  But I feel that any disappointments might have been withdrawal from the previous years’ totals. So how do we examine that summation?  By comparing the stats over the years.  And that is what I want to do over the next blog or two. 

I think it will be interesting.  I can’t wait to do the investigation.  Stay with us for the results.

And may I please state – IT’S A BLOG.  It’s discussion, and just thinking about stuff.  Never meant to be written in stone fact.  I just share what’s on my/our mind at the time, concerning some part of where my/our curiosity takes us.   And these posts will definitely be just me looking at stuff from the perspective of a curious analytical.  JUST A BLOG!!!! 

Hawk Watching for the Truly Rare

Just a note on Leucistic Raptors -

While I (Cynthia) am compiling  the blogs about  our final stats for the season and  comparisons of those with previous years, Jimmy wanted to share some info on a report of a "White" Red-Tail to tn-bird. Some of you might have seen it.

We know Tarcila Fox as a hawk watcher, and respect her ability to discern what bird she saw. So we asked could we share her story. Thank you, Tarcila for permission to reprint your post and pictures!
 (I removed her addy to protect her from unwanted emails.)

 Jimmy wrote a discussion on what a white hawk actually is. Many of our readers may actually know, but some learners may find this an important bit of info. We feel it is certainly blog worthy and important to an overall study of Hawks.

Jimmy wanted me to add a note concerning the rarity of this bird.  Over the years we have recorded several dark morph or dark phase, or other forms of dark versions of raptors. This year we have 2.  We consider them some of our rarest sightings. We delight in being able to record them. But in the 24 years we have been counting, we can't remember anyone picking out a white or partially white individual from the 83,537 raptors we've counted. (*See note below about Krider's Red-tail.)

Recent reports have increased where birders have captured (on film) white raptors. These have been mostly seen in trees, on posts or coursing over fields. They stand out. The increase in reports are probably due to the optics and cameras able to capture them, and the ease of making reports on modern media. And of course, we often don't see kettles closely enough to pick out such individuals. But remember, we have picked out the dark ones. So, realize that these hawks are very rare.  We are so proud Tarcila was able to make a record of this bird.

In response to our request to use her report Tarcila said:

" I would be honored for you to use my pictures. I have others too, if you want to look through them all to see if they would be of benefit.

Thanks for the opportunity!"
&
about her pictures:
"I do not have one that is a front view with wings spread, but the first picture below has a pretty good view of the trace of a belly band. The second picture is the closest I have to seeing the front wing spread. ...Hugs"

First let me share Tarcila's post and pics with you, and then I'll post Jimmy's discussion. Look closely at Tarcila's info to see how she was able to ID this hawk:

"----- Original Message -----
From: Tarcila Fox
To: tn-bird@freelists.org

Sent: Tue, 29 Nov 2016 18:52:19 -0000 (UTC)
Subject: [TN-Bird] Leucistic Red-Tailed Hawk


A friend saw what she thought was a Snowy Owl. So this morning I traveled to the location on Lock Six Road in Hartsville,TN (Trousdale County) and found a very white Red-tailed Hawk. There are two red middle tail-feathers which were clear to be seen by binoculars, but not such a good in my pictures. There are also several dark brown feathers in the wings which, by eye, looked to be mirrored on the opposite wing. Also, if you can enlarge the last picture, it shows some traces of a belly band. When it flew away, some crows started mobbing it and I heard the distinctive Red-tailed cry.

Tarcila Fox, Goodlettsville, TN"

Tarcila could see the faint belly band from this view.

Tarcila's pics of the Red-Tailed Hawk with white feathering.
A tad of red shows in the tail.



The under-wing of the Red-tail showing the fore-wing with slightly brown feathers
which she said were mirrored on the other wing.

(When I wrote this post yesterday, I was having computer difficulties, so I didn't get to make a couple of comments about Tarcila's report.  She took a bird that might have been difficult to ID, and picked out or looked for the key things that would cause one to lean toward a certain conclusion.  In my experience, others, who aren't there, often will pick apart a report when the identification marks aren't clear.  When Tarcila had done all she could do, to not only ID this bird, she also took the best pictures she was able, and from as many angles as possible.  But what sealed the ID was her knowledge of it's call.  More than once, the call settles it.  I am so glad she was lucky enough to hear it call, so there could be no doubt, no questions, no debate.)  Thanks for the extra effort Tarcila!
____________________________________________

Jimmy's discussion of birds like Tarcila's:

 Sunday, Dec. 11, 2016

A friend of the hawk watch, Tarcila Fox, posted to our state bird list serve an experience where she saw a Leucistic Red-tailed Hawk.  The accompanying photo's Tarcilla took are astounding and  illustrate what she saw!

For my part, I will try and describe what a bird/hawk with Leucistic tendencies is.  Leucism, leukism and leucistic are all terms describing the same phenomenon. To start, the best way to pronounce this word that I have found is (lou-kiss-tick).

Leucism is an abnormal plumage condition caused by a genetic mutation that somewhat prevents melanin pigment from being deposited into a birds feathers.  These birds don't have the classic plumage coloration that you can see in any of the field guides.  Instead, a leucistic bird, hawk in this case, presents an abnormal amount of white coloration over much of its body.  Most people, after viewing Tarcila's photo's, might comment that they are seeing an albino hawk.  NOT TRUE...albinism affects the whole hawk and would display All white featheration.  Some leucistic hawks can display only moderate white instead.  The hawk we have to show which is almost all white makes identification more difficult.  Albino hawks will have pinkish or red eyes, feet, legs and a pale bill which Tarcila's hawk does not have.

While either albino or leusistic hawks, make wonderful prized sightings for birders, they suffer from a greater threat to themselves than a normal plumaged hawk.  As examples these hawks loose their ability of camouflaged protection and may be more susceptible to predation.  Coloration plays an important part in mate selection and these hawks may not be as readily able to find healthier stronger mates.

When I first attended a Crane Festival at Hiwassee Refuge near Birchwood, Tn., over 20 years ago, a rare very white crane was spotted.  At the time I had never heard of leucism so I assumed we were seeing an albino Sandhill Crane.  To this day I don't know if that bird was albino or not.  It doesn't really matter.  What I do remember was how all the other cranes ostracized this one particular crane.  None of them would let it join their group, they continually pushed it away and would not let it eat nor would they let it approach the waters edge to drink.  If that white crane stayed with the group I don't see how it could have survived much longer.  I was reminded how we as children were not so accepting of other kids sometimes who were different. WHAT A MISTAKE...

This is hawk plumage study in a nut shell, when it's white.  I encourage you, the reader, to google these subjects for more detailed information.  As always when we sign off, we use the moniker:

"Keep Looking Up"
Jimmy W.


Edit note:
* Bill Haley emailed us saying he remembered one TV with enough white on it that it looked like paint had been splashed on it, but could remember no others.  He also felt that it might be mentionable, that Krider's Red-Tailed Hawks can be very light birds, nearing Leucistic lightness sometimes.  And we have had a few of those through the years.  Bill actually saw one this year, and reported it.  It was probably in an earlier post.  The one he saw actually had a tail so light that very little red was showing.  They also are considered RARE sightings, and it would be necessary to make a determination whether a very light to white Red-tail is Leucistic or merely a Krider's.  Purhaps, there would be an occasion that you could not determine that, just as there are occasions you could not discern between a Leucistic bird and an albino bird with out good pictures or visuals and notes on specific features. 

The Last Data of the Season From Bill

Bill has sent his last data for the 2016 Fall Season of migration. I am  going to post his report and prepare the Statistics and applications up in the next day or so. I already have updated the sidebar totals and break down by BW event and the following migration days.  This data will all be added to the Stats page for later review, and comparison.  For now, here's Bill's final Report:

Dec. 11, 2016 report:

Perhaps it is fitting that a fall migration season that started on September 11 ends on December 11, exactly 3 months to the day. Once again Soddy Mountain hawkwatchers have monitored an entire fall migration season, something that has not been done anywhere else in Tennessee.

I arrived at 12:30. There was a strong wind from the south of 5-10 MPH,  clouds were 40%, visibility of 40K, temperature was 47 F and the pressure was 30.35. By 1:00 conditions were worsening. Clouds had increased to 75% and the wind had strengthened to 8-15, with some gusts of 20+. At 2:00 cloud cover was approaching 90%. The clouds were moving faster than I've seen all fall, telling me the upper level winds were even stronger than at ground level.

The only two hawks I saw were a local accipiter and local Red-tail. They both had trouble dealing with the winds and neither stayed aloft long. I briefly thought the "tail" might move through and save me from getting skunked, but it was not to be. No migrant raptors today at all. 

(Today's total raptors: 0)

 

The only other soaring birds I saw were 5 Sandhill  Cranes and a couple of Black Vultures that seemed to be enjoying playing in the wind. Why? Because they could. And they were a welcome sight with almost 100% cloud cover after 2:00 and not much hope of seeing any migrants.

So ends fall 2016. I won't have another chance to get up there and more rain, and maybe some snow is predicted this week.

I re-dedictated myself to get to the hawk lookout at every opportunity this year after several years of poor coverage on my part. Looking back over my records,  here is my effort:

39 days, 200.25 hours.

Sept. 11 days, 77.25 hrs. 

Oct. 14 days, 77.75 hrs.

Nov. 9 days, 31.25 hrs.

Dec. 4 days, 14.0 hrs.

Jimmy and Cynthia, "ironman" and "ironwoman" September hawkwatchers will also have some hours to add because they were there on days when I was working. And they were very tough, hot hours this year. Stay tuned for the "official" final totals of both hours and migrants counted.

November will go down as the month of the forest fires. Smoke hampered and limited my coverage during what is normally my favorite part of the migration.

Jimmy, Cynthia and I will remember this as the strangest fall of the 24 we've spent at Soddy Mountain due to the extended hot weather, no rain, which produced an extreme drought, rampant local wildfires that produced terrible smoke, and a complete lack of strong fronts for almost the entire three months. These conditions produced a disappointing flight in terms of numbers.

Will this become the new paradigm in this age of climate change and global warming? Every season is different and next year will tell. 

We'll all hopefully be there to document another migration in 2017. Could you be there to help us? We are in sore need of reinforcements, and would love to train new, dedicated hawkwatchers to continue the legacy of the premier hawk lookout in Tennessee, Soddy Mountain.

Reporting: Bill Haley

 

________________________________

 

Today as we traveled back from Nashville, stream after stream of Turkey Vultures flew over the treetops, and appeared in the distant N as if dropping through the clouds.  They coursed low over the treetops seeking roosting spots as the evening drew dim and the rain renewed as a light foggy mist.  The more we saw of them, the more they seemed to be Migrants, because a few miles nearer Cagle, we saw lots of Black Vultures seeking roosts, but were coming in from all directions.  That's generally how we tell migrants from locals on most days anyway.  I did a quick count through them by 10's as an estimate and saw over 120 the first round and over 60 the second round.  Then we saw a dozen more stragglers.  This is not the first time I have seen migrant vultures moving SW over the fields between Murfreesboro and Cagle. It's a little north of where birds we would see from Soddy Mtn. Lookout would cross, but most likely where birds which have crossed from Rhea County would be traveling.  I was very impressed that they were on the move in that kind of weather.  And very curious if they truly had dropped through the cloud cover from higher elevations.  They wouldn't have had to be too high as low as these clouds today(12/13) were.  For me, it indicated a possibility Vultures are still moving.  But Red-Tails certainly weren't.  We saw many as we traveled, perched on line poles and tree tops, the whole way.  Until the fog closed in so much we could no longer see the road well.  Alas..the last raptors of the year have been counted f rom Soddy Mtn.  But even on a day like today, when we saw not only the vultures, but many large groups of Black birds of some kind, and several flocks of smaller species, moving low across the skies, there will be opportunities to -

 

KEEP LOOKING UP!!!

 

ps Jimmy and I have a couple more blogs we are going to post, hopefully between now and January first, before we close the Year out and await the Spring counts of 2017...if we are lucky enough to have a few records.  Hope you will stayed tuned for the blogs to end this year.  May you Holidays be warm and full of blessings!!

C

44 Raptors Saturday!

Nearing the end of migration, Bill braves the cold on the hill to get a couple more reports.  This is for Saturday:

Dec. 10 report:

Arrived today at 12:00, left at 4:15. Wind was NE 1-4, clouds were never over 5%, visibility was 55 - 65K,  temperature 37-44F.  What really surprised me was the barometric pressure,  which started at a very high 30.57 and ended at 30.46. The highest pressures I've experienced this fall. 

I was guardedly optimistic, even this late in the season, as finally there are large areas of the country north of us getting some snow. Thanks to the recent severe cold front, we've finally had a hard frost with lows in the lower 20's. I suspected there should be some hawks moving south because of it.

First bird was an adult Bald Eagle at 12:03. At 12:21 I was watching 16 Sandhill Cranes when I spotted the familiar crossbow shape of a buteo coming my way, and a nice adult Red-shouldered Hawk sailed overhead. An adult Red-tailed Hawk followed almost the same path 34 minutes later. Yes! The migration isn't completely done!

The action wasn't as quick as I might have liked...but there were countable birds heading south! 

I counted three more Red-tails, with the last one at 4:03 amid a kettle of 26 Turkey Vultures streaming down the sky in front of a 3/4 moon. It would have made a memorable photograph but my cell phone couldn't handle it. That's OK. One more image for my mental photo album -  a collection years in the making. 

It was interesting how much faster the vultures were in a glide. They easily overtook the much smaller hawk, even though it was the first bird to stream out of the kettle. It gamely glided on south at its own pace.

Final totals, Dec. 10, 2016:

Bald Eagle 1 (adult)

Turkey Vulture 38

Red-shouldered 1

Red-tailed 4

______________________

 

Todays Raptors: 44

Also seen: 

Sandhill Cranes 66

I plan to be on the lookout tomorrow after church, for possibly the last time this fall. Truth is that I don't want it to be over. I'm still optimistic at the end of this year's flight - hoping for that elusive Golden Eagle...and a few more hawks too!

Reporting: Bill Haley

________________________

 

 

Today, I saw multiple groups of Turkey Vultures in kettles all across the valley everywhere we looked about midday.  At one time I saw about 60 in 3 groups and they were all moving S from the Tops of the kettles.  I believe them to have been migrants, but alas can't count them.  But it just goes to show you that it pays to

KEEP LOOKING UP!

 

Hope you holidays are proving to be blessed.  Check in the morning for Bill's Sunday Report!

Bill's Still Faithful

Clear skies all the way to Watt's Bar and Kingston Steam plant!!
(Bill's pictures today.)

Bill Haley sent the following 3 reports, with pictures:
                                     ***

The other night, while channel surfing, I ran across the movie Forrest Gump. Ended up watching it for the umpteenth time. I really like the movie, no matter how many times I've seen it. One of the most memorable lines is "Momma said life is like a box of chocolates - you never know what you'll get."

Everyone has their favorite in a box of chocolates, and their least favorite. My least favorite is the hard caramel. I pick a piece, hoping perhaps for maple, cherry or chocolate creme fillings. The chocolate coating  is good on the outside, but when I bite through that delicious coating......hard caramel. A bit of a disappointment. It is still candy and it is good, but I would rather have had something else.

It strikes me that hawkwatching is also like a box of chocolates - you never know what you'll get. My last three times on the lookout have been "hard caramel days". I got something, but definitely not what I hoped for.

What I've been waiting for was a day when I would see the crossbow shapes of many southbound Red-tailed Hawks passing overhead and more hawks stacked up over the north ridge on their way towards the lookout. This scenario depends on the weather getting bad up north with lots of snow and ice - forcing the bird's south. It just hasn't happened this year. There have been some lake effect snows in the upper NE and Great Lakes states, but the states between there and Tennessee haven't experienced much snow yet. The "tails" have had no reason to come this far south. Thus, a "hard caramel" late season flight.

 

 

I've been lax about getting reports sent in, so will  combine Nov. 25, Dec. 1 and Dec. 2 in this report.

Nov. 25, 2016 - the day after Thanksgiving:

I arrived at 11:00 and stayed until 3:30. When I got there wind was NNW 2-5, clouds were 85%, visibility 55K,  temperature of 55F,  and the barometer read 30.30. By noon it had begun to clear some with 50% clouds, wind N 5-10 and barometer dropping to 30.28. At 3:00 clouds were 35%, temperature was 63F, winds had shifted back to NNW 2-8 and the pressure was 30.22.

I saw my first Sandhill Cranes of the fall, with groups of 10, 3, 4 and 18. They were going in a generally southerly direction. Seems to me they are late this year.

I had two small groups of migrant Turkey Vultures, with 15 total birds.

Only one Red-tail was countable, an immature bird. After a lengthy glide south it dropped low over the valley below before spiraling back up into the sky. The picture this hawk made against a fall backdrop of burnt orange, gold and red foliaged trees was stunning! My favorite thing of the day.

An adult Bald Eagle at 2:52 was the last raptor counted.

Totals for Nov. 25, 2016

Bald Eagle 1

Red-tail 1

Turkey Vulture 15

 

Sandhill Crane 35

"When this bird flew overhead on Nov. 25, all I could do was point my phone

 where I thought the bird would be. I got half of it!"

LOL

___________________________

 

 

Dec. 1, 2016 report:

Arrived 9:15. Wind NE 1-2, clear, visibility 60K,  temperature 45F,  barometer 30.06 and rising. By 10:00 the wind had shifted to the NW, and then W, where it stayed for the remainder of the day - getting stronger with some gusts up to 15 mph. Temperature when I left at 1:30 was 52F and the pressure had stayed steady.

Two small groups of Sandhill Cranes (5 and 2), appeared to be coming from Hiwassee Refuge and were flying west.

Counted only 2 Red-tails.

A total of 5 Bald Eagles kind of saved the day, but they were all pretty distant. There were 3 adults and 2 immature. 

Totals, Dec. 1, 2016:

Bald Eagle 5 (3 ad., 2 imm.)

Red-tail 2

 

Sandhill Crane 7

_____________________________

Dec. 2,  2016 Report:

Arrived at 10:00. Wind was S 1-3, clear, visibility 50K,  temperature 43F , barometer 30.28 and rising. The wind was variable but changed to NW before I left the lookout at 1:30. By then the temperature reached 54F and the pressure had dropped a bit to 30.25.

The first raptor of the day was a beautiful adult Bald Eagle, which soared over the north ridge for awhile, but then flew back north, so was not countable.

At 11:58 I spotted a buteo out over cell 2, and it proved to be a nice adult Red-shouldered Hawk. It spiraled high and then sailed on south. It turned out to be the only hawk counted today.

Total, Dec. 2, 2016:

Red-shouldered Hawk 1

I may try to get up there this coming Saturday. A severe cold front is expected, and it won't be pleasant on the lookout. A good hawk flight might make up some for the discomfort though. I'm still hoping for those Red-tails and still looking for a Golden Eagle. Unfortunately, time is running out this year.

Reporting: Bill Haley

____________________________________

 

Grand Total these 3 days is 25 Raptors.

 

When, lately have you seen 25 raptors in 3 days?  Even "small" numbers indicate that birds are still in transition from N to S.  However slowly they are coming through.  Several days of rain, and definite cold taking over this weekend, may cause the final push.  So Bill hopes to get up at least one more time.  If it isn't too cold.

 

Thanks again for every hour spent.  I am looking forward to seeing our Grand Total for the year. And I want to compare it to some of our earlier years.   There are a few places still posting to http://www.hawkcount.org/, mostly up North>   (Ck the left sidebar for the easy to find link.)

 

 

So it is never too late to

 KEEP LOOKING UP!!!

 

 

Dec. 5th's reports:

Allegheny Front (PA)                                     2
Bethany Hawkwatch (MN)                          123
Hawk Mountain Sanctuary (PA)                      4
Hitchcock Nature Center (IA)                       18
Lighthouse Point (CT)                                 NA
Second Mountain (PA)                                    9
Waggoner's Gap (PA)                                   13
Washington Monument State Park (MD)       9